A Rigorous Financing Program Capital and Impact Projection Model
The choice of financing model/features and right sizing the market is critical to generating credible, realistic estimates. Financing program participation estimates are highly dependent on several factors beyond simply characterizing the housing stock and demographics.
Dunsky’s custom-built finance and impact model contains empirical program performance data from the scores of financing program strategies, studies and evaluations that Dunsky has led. We have applied this model to successfully assess the potential for financing programs to drive residential retrofit uptake across North America for leading utilities and jurisdictions who are accelerating the energy transition.
How it Works
The model assesses and compares different finance mechanisms (e.g., PACE, OBR, Third Party Financing) and applies a market funnel considering five critical factors:
- Technical feasibility: The total number of existing homes that could benefit from home energy upgrades in the region excluding new homes and homes that are not able to undertake energy efficiency technologies.
- Financial feasibility: Measure cost-effectiveness and the number of homeowners that can reasonably finance a project (e.g., low debt-to-income ratio, good credit) versus those that are higher risk or unable to take on additional debt (e.g., low income, mortgage insured).
- Program design requirements: Program features and eligibility requirements (e.g., owner vs renter, mortgage insured homes, savings to investment ratio requirements).
- Market share: The distribution of retrofit project based on size, depth and costs across the different housing types.
- Adoption rates: Inputs and assumptions are based on relevant local data and real-world experience in jurisdictions across North America, defined program features and external factors that can hinder or accelerate adoption.
If you are interested in learning more about our Retrofit Financing Model, contact info@dunsky.com.